Professional Trader Will Sell Early on Catalyst, And Why He's Right

A professional trader who's been in cannabis stocks for 15 years already knows he'll sell early on the next catalyst. Not because he doesn't believe but because he's seen how this movie ends six times.

Selling early and leaving profit on the table beats giving it all back.

Everyone investing in cannabis thinks they're early. Dan McDermitt has been trading the sector before Colorado legalized, before California, before MSOS existed. He's seen every cycle. Every pump. Every slow bleed back to zero.

His conclusion is uncomfortable: if you've been through multiple pump-and-dump cycles, you're not early. You're just still here.

The "I'm Early" Delusion

The retail investor's favorite cope is timing. "The thesis is right, the timing was wrong." It's a way to stay in without admitting you might be wrong about the structure of the bet itself.

Dan's framing is different. He doesn't argue the thesis. He argues the market. Cannabis stocks trade in a broken system OTC mechanics, illiquid ETFs, swap structures nobody fully understands, and algos that spike price on tweets before slow-bleeding for days. The fundamentals might be fine. The plumbing is not.

The Bear Playbook

Here's what Dan sees over and over: headline drops, Twitter account reposts it, algos spike MSOS on volume, it halts, tops out at resistance, slow bleeds for two days. Rinse. Repeat.

Bears don't need a thesis. They just need time. As long as DC moves slowly and no concrete catalyst lands, bears win by default. Short into the spike, cover on the bleed, repeat next week

Overhead Supply

The part nobody talks about: bag holders. Thousands of investors sitting underwater who bought the Biden promise, the rescheduling rumors, the Florida vote. If MSOS pops 100%, they're not celebrating they're selling to break even. That's the ceiling. Every rally has to absorb that selling pressure before it can run.

Structural Takeaway

Cannabis stocks don't trade on fundamentals. Until the structure changes uplisting, concrete federal action, real volume the playbook stays the same. And the bears know it.